Gurugram : Seven days of forecasts pointing one way have left the property industry scrambling. Developers want the RBI to wait. Buyers are recalculating EMIs mid-booking.
Talk of a repo rate hike has unsettled the property market a month before Diwali.
The Reserve Bank decides on October 7. Most economists expect it to raise rates for the first time in over three years. For real estate, the timing could hardly be worse.
Buyers pay more on their loans. Builders pay more on theirs. Both in the same month, in the quarter the sector counts on.
A 25 basis point hike adds about ₹800 a month to the EMI on a ₹50 lakh loan. A second hike in December, which SBI Research and Nomura both expect, takes it to nearly ₹1,600 — and ₹3.8 lakh in extra interest over 20 years.
Every floating-rate home loan sanctioned since October 2019 moves with the repo rate. The increase lands fast.
The RBI should hold
Developers are not hiding their position.
“While a 25 bps hike in repo rate looks likely, the RBI should consider maintaining a status quo in October MPC,” said Suresh H. A., Managing Director, Sanjeevini Group. Prices have already run up, he said, and “even a marginal increase in home loan rates can influence purchase decisions, particularly among first-time and mid-income buyers.”
Lalit Parihar, Managing Director, Aaiji Group, wants the central bank to wait a quarter. “The RBI should consider holding rates in October and assessing the inflation trajectory over the next quarter,” he said. Smaller cities worry him most, where buying follows a new expressway or metro line: “For emerging real estate destinations, where demand is closely linked to infrastructure development, policy stability is particularly important.”
Santosh Agarwal, Executive Director and CFO, Alpha Corp Development Limited, said a hold at 5.25 per cent would let buyers plan. “A predictable interest rate environment allows homebuyers to plan long-term financial commitments with greater certainty,” she said, sustaining demand across mid-income, premium and luxury housing over the next six to 12 months.
Demand is real, and that is the point
The industry’s argument is that the current run is not speculative, so it is worth protecting.
“We are seeing this reflected in the strength of enquiries, site visits and, more importantly, conversions,” said Pradeep Aggarwal, Founder and Chairman, Signature Global (India) Ltd. “Demand today is increasingly being driven by end-users looking to own a home rather than speculative activity.” He said rates matter beyond housing, “given housing’s strong linkages with steel, cement, employment and consumption.”
Yateesh Wahaal, Director, M3M, said the market has held up on end-user demand and that a steady policy signal “would further strengthen confidence, improve affordability, and encourage homebuying, particularly in the mid-income and premium segments.”
Builders take the second hit
The part buyers do not see is on the developers’ own books.
Construction finance, working capital lines and project debt are mostly floating-rate. The interest outgo rises immediately, not when the flat sells. A leveraged builder pays more to construct at exactly the moment buyers are paying more to buy. The margin shrinks, or the cost goes into the price and sales slow further.
Mid-sized builders feel it first. They borrow at wider spreads, carry thinner cushions, and a stalled project keeps accruing interest anyway.
“A repo rate hike at this juncture could raise the cost of capital and may affect investment decisions across the real estate ecosystem,” said Ankur Jalan, CEO, Golden Growth Fund, a category II real estate-focused AIF. Funds need visibility on exits and project financing, he said, and the RBI should “allow more time to assess the persistence of imported inflation before tightening.”
Ashish Sharma, AVP Operations, Brahma Group, said stable rates let developers plan execution and capital deployment, not just sales.
Why the RBI may hike anyway
The repo rate is at 5.25 per cent, unchanged through four reviews. The last hike was February 2023. The 125 basis points cut through 2025 is what built today’s home loan rates.
That is turning. Retail inflation hit 4.82 per cent in August, above the 4 per cent target. Crude crossed $100 as the West Asia conflict widened. Imported inflation rose 7.75 per cent year-on-year in August, and fuel costs have not fully reached the pump yet.
A Reuters poll held September 18 to 28 found nearly 60 per cent of economists expecting an October hike.
One opening left
Expectations cooled late last week after US Federal Reserve officials signalled they may wait before tightening further. Some economists want one more inflation print first.
The call comes at 10 am on October 7.
